I Was Right That Trump Could Win — And He Could Do Even Better In 2020!

By Washington Watcher

11/09/2016

[See earlier by Matthew Richer: For Better Or Worse, Donald Trump May Be The Only Immigration Patriot Running For President, April 13, 2015 (2 months before Trump announced for President!); and much earlier by Steve Sailer GOP Future Depends on Winning Larger Share of the White Vote, November 28, 2000]

After Donald Trump’s heroic victory, Main Stream Media commentators are scrambling to figure where they went wrong, expecting America to listen to their opinions. Bunk — America should listen to VDARE.com, especially me! We were right — and I think Trump could do even better in 2020.

In fairness, some NeverTrumpers like Charles Murray gave credit where it was due:

When someone has been so strategically right so early, he deserves acknowledgment: https://t.co/iWhKkE0EVj

— Charles Murray (@charlesmurray) November 9, 2016

Steve Sailer is too humble rub it in. But I feel free to highlight my own prescience when, right after Romney’s defeat, I proposed a path forward for the GOP despite the immigration-driven changes to the electorate [Look On The Bright Side — Electoral College Gives GOP A (Small) Window To Act, November 17, 2012]

I wrote:

I do agree that, absent some serious changes to our immigration policy, the GOP is indeed eventually doomed. But I think it’s important to note that the Electoral College system will keep Republicans competitive for a few cycles more than the raw demographic data suggests.

There are three swing states with large Hispanic electorate: Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. Perhaps they may be competitive for the GOP for another Presidential election cycle or maybe even two, but not much longer.

But not (yet) in other key swing states

Hispanics made up 2% of the electorate in Iowa, 3% in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Ohio, 4% in North Carolina and Wisconsin, 5% in Virginia, and 6% in Indiana and Pennsylvania.

lost Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Republicans would have to win all but one of these states if they cannot win any of the heavily Hispanic swing states. And some, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, have not gone for the GOP since 1988.

Still, Republicans performed well in all of these states in 2010. The problem is that they then used their victory to pursue anti-union, free trade, and anti-Medicare policies; while refusing to do anything about popular issues like immigration.

Rick Santorum would have probably done very well among these voters, though he would have likely scared off more Independent voters in swing states like Virginia, Florida, and Colorado with his views on social issues. I am confident that someone like Santorum, without the social baggage, who would also be solid on immigration, could be competitive for at least a couple more election cycles.

Then, in 2015, after months of badgering by VDARE.com Editor Peter Brimelow, I looked further into how Trump could win, using FiveThirtyEight.com’s “Sing-O-Meter” feature [Trump CAN Win Presidency With White Working Class–Nate Silver (Unintentionally) Says So!, December 13, 2015]. I made a number of assumptions:

• “A significant, but not unrealistic, increase in turnout and share of the non-college educated white vote.”

• “A small decline amongst college-educated whites. “

• “A blowout and large increase in the share of the Hispanic vote. Just for the sake of argument, we will see Trump do even worse amongst Hispanics than Romney, and see their turn-out go up.”

So here I was too pessimistic, but as I said, I made that point for the sake of argument. And the Hispanic vote is still not that important.

• “A small increase in the black share, and a decrease in their turn-out. Without a black man to vote for, I expect the black turn-out to decrease.”

Under this scenario, I predicted,

He’d lose many Hispanic heavy-western states such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, but he’d bring in many states that the GOP has not won since the 1980s, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania; as well as Iowa, and Ohio, which Obama won in 2008 and 2012

What happens next? The 2016 election actually shows that Trump (or a Trump clone — Ivanka?) could do even better in 2020.

My model overestimated the strength of Trump’s white working class support. He can still do better. While he took fairly strong positions on trade and immigration, he still echoed Conservatism Inc. positions on labor unions and tax cuts, which likely limited his working-class appeal. A more pragmatic populist could get stronger support among the white working class and become more competitive in Minnesota and New England.

As noted, my model significantly underestimated Trump’s Hispanic support. Once again, this shows that immigration patriotism — even with strong rhetoric — does not alienate Hispanics who weren’t already going to vote Democratic.

And Trump did better among affluent whites than predicted, there’s no doubt that many were turned off by Trump’s persona. Another candidate who did not have his baggage could perform better among this demographic.

Trump was by no means the perfect candidate. But he had the perfect message for our time. If he sticks to his campaign promises and Republicans learn from his lead, they just may well survive.

More importantly, so will America.

Washington Watcher is an anonymous source Inside The Beltway.

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