10/09/2022
Even if Democrats lose in November, they still want to Replace the Historic American Nation. Word is, the White House and its Democrat majority in Congress will take one more stab at Amnesty before the new Congress takes over in January 2023. Polls show that Americans overwhelmingly reject Open Borders, but that won’t dissuade Democrats. They have bet everything on demographic replacement as their path to long-term political success. They won’t let one little election stand in the way. The good news: the chance of any Amnesty passing still remains low… so long as the GOP/GAP stands firm. But will it?
The Democrats have failed with every previous effort. President Biden announced a grand Amnesty in the first weeks of his administration. That would have put all illegal aliens on the fabled “Pathway to Citizenship.” Significantly, unlike past Amnesty attempts, this bill didn’t contain any measures for border security and stricter immigration enforcement. It was a straight Amnesty tailored to the left’s wish list. Fortunately, it died on arrival. But there followed other attempts. Smaller Amnesties passed the House in early 2021. One granted a Pathway to Citizenship for illegal aliens who came to the U.S. as minors, the so-called “Dreamers”; the other legalized illegal aliens involved in the agriculture industry. A small but disturbing number of House Republicans voted for those bills. But both went nowhere in the Senate and have remained dormant.
The most serious Amnesty attempt: Last year, Democrats tried to sneak an Amnesty into a larger budget bill. This bill was intended to go through the reconciliation process, which would only require a simple majority to pass, avoiding the filibuster problem. The catch: The Senate Parliamentarian had to determine that its contents specifically dealt with the federal budget. Democrats absurdly argued that giving millions of illegal aliens legal status was a budgetary matter. The Parliamentarian disagreed and ruled against all three attempts to insert an Amnesty. The bill died when West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin said he would not vote for it.
Since then, Democrats haven’t put forward any more plans. Some prominent Republicans and Democrats have met to work out a compromise aka GOP surrender. Business-First Republicans even introduced an Amnesty of their own, but it went nowhere.
It seemed Amnesty was dead for the time being. But Democrats weren’t content to allow this legislative sleeping to lie undisturbed. Now they are trying to push new ideas and bills for what may be their last chance to pass an Amnesty. The White House apparently believes it would help Democrats’ political fortunes if they focused on immigration — not, of course, by closing the border and deporting illegals, but by riling up their ethnic constituencies.
White House staffers believe they haven’t done anything on the issue. “He got most of what he campaigned on done in two years,” a WH source told NBC. “Immigration is really the only big thing that’s still sitting out there.” That sounds delusional, but it’s common thinking in the D.C. echo chamber. The White House officials believe they don’t even have to pass a bill, but instead just propose one to rally their base and smear Republicans as “racist” for not supporting it [The White House Is Discussing a Push Around Immigration — After the Midterms, by Mike Memoli et al., NBC News, October 4, 2022].
One idea is an executive order protecting Dreamers from deportation if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the original Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. Last week, the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, led by Bush 43 appointee Priscilla Richman, said the program is illegal. However, it’s already Biden Regime policy not to deport illegal immigrants unless, supposedly, they have been convicted of serious crimes. And that’s not happening either. This idea is just a PR signal to the leftist base.
Another idea: press Congress to do something on immigration, particularly to move along the Amnesties passed by the House last year. NBC reports that several lawmakers on Capitol Hill are open to a bill that would increase visas for foreign workers to take American jobs.
“Lawmakers in both the House and the Senate have held talks about expanding visas for immigrants working in agriculture, construction and certain other crucial industries, said a member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks,” NBC reported (above)
Congress could take up a bill that would greenlight more visas for immigrant workers in the lame duck session after the midterm elections, this lawmaker said. Republicans might go along because the visas wouldn’t offer a path to citizenship, meaning the new immigrant laborers “can’t vote against these guys in 10 years,” the lawmaker added.
Yet another Amnesty idea comes from California Sen. Alex Padilla and Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin. These Democrats want to change registry laws to allow illegal immigrants to apply for permanent residence if they have lived in the country for at least seven years. That would legalize an estimated 8 million illegals. This bill seems popular among Democrats but has virtually no support from Republicans [Registry Date Reform In U.S. Congress Could Impact Over 8 Million Immigrants, by Andy J. Semotiuk, Forbes, September 30, 2022].
Whether any of these ideas pass depends upon Republicans. Democrats need at least 10 Republican senators to overcome a filibuster. Are there 10 Republicans to back one of their proposals? Probably not.
There might be ten Republicans who would theoretically support some form of Amnesty. But they would demand concessions on border security and immigration enforcement in exchange for their votes. It appears Democrats aren’t eager to do so. Some Republicans might even support a narrow legalization, such as one that does give citizenship to its recipients. Thus Texas Sen. John Cornyn and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis are two of squishiest Republican senators on Amnesty. Their idea — which would have granted a Pathway to Citizenship only to Dreamers enrolled in DACA — was shot down by Democrats because it wasn’t expansive enough.
Democrat extremism on immigration is the reason no Amnesty will pass. For one thing, the massive border surge that no Democrat seems to want to solve repels even the cuckiest Republican. Republicans are campaigning hard on the issue for the midterms. This is not a moment when Republicans feel compelled to give Democrats what they desire. Polling is on the side of doing more to enforce immigration law rather than reward those who broke it.
The second reason for Republican reluctance: Democrats do not want to support any kind of increased border security or immigration enforcement. They would get more Republican support if they just made these basic concessions, but their left wing won’t allow it. The only kinds of immigration measures Democrats will back are ones that reward illegals or increase immigration. At the same time, Republicans are only incentivized to back measures that deal with more border security or immigration enforcement. This is fortunately a paradigm that doesn’t lead to compromise.
It also makes little sense for Republicans to make a deal if they win the midterms. They would have the upper hand and enough votes to block any last-minute Democrat shenanigans. It’s doubtful that Republicans would be more open to Amnesty after winning an election at least in part due to immigration patriotism.
The bill least likely to pass is the Registry Update. There’s little chance Republicans would support an Amnesty for at least eight million illegals in exchange for nothing.
The Dreamer Amnesty and Big Ag Amnesty have greater chances of passage since they both passed the House with some Republican support. But neither looks destined for passage at the present time. The previously mentioned Cornyn-Tillis bill showed cucky Republicans were uncomfortable with how many illegals would get citizenship under the House bill and wanted a more limited measure. But Democrats said no to that. The Amnesty for illegal agricultural workers may have better prospects, because it appeals to the Business First interests of many Republicans. But according to a recent article in a trade publication, while Big Ag is pushing for a vote on the bill during the lame-duck session, a key representative says it’s not a “can’t lose situation” [Business Lobbies Push for Lame-Duck Amnesties, by Neil Munro, Breitbart, September 30, 2022].
The bill with the most prospects: the increase in guest worker visas. Sen. Tillis told Roll Call last month that he feels the lame-duck period would be an opportune time to pass such a measure and his fellow Republicans are open to the idea due to apparent labor shortages. It’s tough to say whether this prediction will work out. Republicans may be worried about any immigration sellout if they won on promising no sellouts [Record pace for green cards won’t last without congressional action, by Suzanne Monyak, Roll Call, September 22, 2022].
The one idea that could pass: a limited Amnesty in exchange for greater border security. Democratic Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema alluded to such an idea in a recent speech, saying “we have to address both our security needs and our workforce needs” [The White House Is Discussing a Push Around Immigration — After the Midterms, by Mike Memoli et al., NBC News, October 4, 2022].
The good news is that the rest of her party remains firmly opposed to that idea. That may change after the election, but it will probably have to wait until Republicans take over Congress for it to be a realistic idea. Democrats just don’t want to do it at the moment.
The most likely scenario: Democrats push some form of Amnesty that Republicans cannot accept, and Biden will use its failure to smear the Republicans as racist. The White House is already planning for this scenario, according to NBC. But polls show this appeal will fall flat. The American people don’t want Amnesty, they want a secure border.
Washington Watcher II is an anonymous DC insider.
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