09/05/2014
Is reality dawning? Celebrity campaign consultant Dick Morris, who has often been on the other side of the immigration issue, wrote last week that “[c]urbing illegal immigration is the jobs and the income inequality issue of our time. Seize it” [Wage Gap A Republican Issue, The Hill, September 2, 2014]. (Why not legal, Dick?) Conservatism Inc. blogger John Hinderaker reacted to today’s disappointing job numbers by saying flatly Let’s Not Drive Down Wages With Immigration “Reform” [Powerline, September 5, 2014]. And Red State Democrats are plainly panicking, although Obama apparently doesn’t care Obama:Unilateral Amnesty ‘Soon,’ Likely After Election, by Neil Munro, Daily Caller, September 5, 2014].And all this without the news, still only reported on VDARE.com, that the August job data shows immigrant displacement of American workers has spiked unprecedentedly — to reach a level unseen since we started tracking it in 2004.
Employers added just 142,000 positions in August, the lowest rate since December. It was the first sub-200,000 gain in six months, raising new questions as to the strength and longevity of the economic recovery. [Jobs report disappoints, by M.J. Lee and Patrick Temple-West, POLITICO, September 5, 2014]
But a far bigger story springs out from the “other” job survey, of households rather than businesses. Household survey data indicates that the foreign-born share of U.S. employment was at a record — not just for August but for any month since the start of the Obama era in January 2009.
The Household Survey reports an abysmal 16,000 jobs were created last month. Behind the anemic growth figure are two enormous job shifts — a quantum rise in immigrant employment coupled with an equally large decline in native-born American employment.
In August
Native-born American employment growth is the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI — the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth — is in yellow. The index starts at 100.0 for both native-born Americans and immigrants in January 2009, and tracks their employment growth since then.
From January 2009 to August 2014:
While the immigrant share of total employment has risen steadily, albeit erratically, since the start of the Obama years, last month’s jump is unprecedented:
With total U.S. employment running at about 146 million, every one-tenth of one percent increase in share translates to 146,000 more workers. From July 2014 to August 2014 the immigrant share of total employment rose from 16.35% to 16.80% — a gain of 0.45 percentage points.
That implies that as many as 657,000 native-born Americans may have lost jobs due to immigration.
Other data seem to confirm the August discomfort felt by native-born American workers. While the national unemployment rate fell, unemployment rates for whites and blacks remained unchanged — at 5.3% for the former and a lofty 11.4% for the latter. By contrast, Hispanic unemployment fell to 7.5% in August from 7.8% in July.
A more detailed snapshot of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in Household Survey data published in the monthly job report:
Employment Status by Nativity, Aug. 2013-Aug. 2014 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) | |||||
Aug-13 | Aug-14 | Change | % Change | ||
Foreign born, 16 years and older | |||||
Civilian population | 38,197 | 39,289 | 1,092 | 2.9% | |
Civilian labor force | 25,540 | 26,046 | 506 | 2.0% | |
Participation rate (%) | 66.9% | 66.3% | -0.6 %pts. | -0.9% | |
Employed | 23,833 | 24,639 | 806 | 3.4% | |
Employment/population % | 62.4% | 62.7% | 0.3 %pts. | 0.5% | |
Unemployed | 1,707 | 1,407 | -300 | -17.6% | |
Unemployment rate (%) | 6.7% | 5.4% | -1.3 %pts. | -19.4% | |
Not in labor force | 12,658 | 13,243 | 585 | 4.6% | |
Native born, 16 years and older | |||||
Civilian population | 207,762 | 208,940 | 1,178 | 0.6% | |
Civilian labor force | 130,431 | 130,388 | -43 | 0.0% | |
Participation rate (%) | 62.8% | 62.4% | -0.4 %pts. | -0.6% | |
Employed | 120,676 | 122,008 | 1,332 | 1.1% | |
Employment/population % | 58.1% | 58.4% | 0.3 %pts. | 0.5% | |
Unemployed | 9,755 | 8,381 | -1,374 | -14.1% | |
Unemployment rate (%) | 7.5% | 6.4% | -1.1 %pts. | -14.7% | |
Not in labor force | 77,331 | 78,552 | 1,221 | 1.6% | |
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation — August 2014,Table A-7, September 5, 2014. PDF | |||||
Edwin S. Rubenstein is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants.
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