National Data | August Jobs: Immigrant Displacement Of American Workers Near All-Time High

09/08/2012

Even President Obama’s Main Stream Media cheerleaders were disappointed by the August job data released Friday. (Weak jobs report delivers blow to Obama, by Tom Raum, AP, September 7, 2012)

The Payroll Survey total limped up by only 96,000 over the month, well below the 125,000 gain expected by Wall Street economists. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%, as nearly 400,000 workers simply gave up their job search and exited the labor force.

At 63.5%, the labor force participation rate is the lowest it’s been since September 1981. Not since Reagan inherited Jimmy Carter’s mess has confidence been this low.

And that’s the good news. The bad news: the relentless displacement of American workers by immigrants that has continued throughout the Obama years.

You can still only follow this displacement on VDARE.com. Even Establishment sources that regularly compare job growth to workforce growth to gauge the unemployment implication — for example the Hamilton Project’s “Job Gap” — never adjust for immigration, although Washington has been giving out some 100,000 work permits a month throughout the current troubles.

The “other” survey, of households rather than business establishments, was also released yesterday. It showed that total employment fell in August (the second straight month in which the job gains reported by the Payroll Survey turned to outright losses when based on what real people say). The Household Survey now reports national origin, and our analysis reveals that both natives and immigrants lost ground in August:

Total employment fell by 119,000, or by -0.08%
Native-born employment fell by 61,000, or by -0.05%
Foreign-born employment fell by 58,000, or by -0.25%

This is an anomaly. In July, in contrast, immigrants took all the reported job growth — and then some. Overall, throughout the Obama Administration, immigrants gained jobs at a faster pace than natives. This longer-term trend can be seen this clearly in the New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI):

Native employment growth is the black line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI — the ratio of immigrant to native job growth — is yellow.

To calculate NVDAWDI we set native and immigrant employment indexes in Barack Obama’s first month in office (January 2009) at 100.0. By August 2012 the immigrant employment index had risen to 106.3, while the index of native employment declined to 98.8.

The August NVAWDI was 107.6, down slightly from July’s record 107.8 displacement.

In January 2009 native-born workers held 84.8% of all U.S. jobs. In August 2012 the native share slipped to 83.8% — a seemingly modest loss until you apply that one percent drop to the 142 million plus individuals working in the U.S.

From January 2009 to August 2012:

Foreign-born employment rose 1.359 million, or by 6.3%
Native-born employment fell by 1.479 million, or by -1.2%

Since Mr. Obama took office native jobs losses are practically the mirror image of immigrant job gains. One-to-one displacement of natives by new immigrant workers is highly likely.

(Of course, these figures do not reflect jobs native-born Americans have lost to the U.S.-born children of immigrants already in the country.)

American worker displacement over the past 12 months is evident in data reported by BLS in its latest employment report:

Employment Status by Nativity, Aug. 2011-Aug. 2012
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)
	Aug-11	Aug-12	Change	% Change
	Foreign born, 16 years and older
Civilian population	36,531	37,847	1,316	3.6%
Civilian labor force	24,377	24,998	621	2.5%
Participation rate (%)	66.7%	66.1%	-0.6%	-0.9%
Employed	22,292	23,080	788	3.5%
Employment/population %	61.0%	61.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Unemployed	2,085	1,918	-167	-8.0%
Unemployment rate (%)	8.6%	7.7%	-0.9%	-10.5%
Not in labor force	12,154	12,849	695	5.7%
	Native born, 16 years and older
Civilian population	203,340	205,709	2,369	1.2%
Civilian labor force	129,966	130,257	291	0.2%
Participation rate (%)	63.9%	63.3%	-0.6%	-0.9%
Employed	118,043	119,479	1,436	1.2%
Employment/population %	58.1%	58.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Unemployed	11,923	10,778	-1,145	-9.6%
Unemployment rate (%)	9.2%	8.3%	-0.9%	-9.8%
Not in labor force	73,374	75,462	2,088	2.8%
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation — August 2012," September 7, 2012. Table A-7. PDF

Over the past 12 months:

Immigrants gained 788,000 jobs, a 3.5% increase; native-born workers gained 1,436,000 positions, a 1.2% increase. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
The unemployment rate for immigrants fell by 0.9 percentage points — a 10.5% decline; the rate for the native-born fell by 0.9 percentage points — a 9.8% decline. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
Employment as a percent of population remained unchanged – at 58.1% for the native-born and 61.0% for immigrants ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
The labor force participation rate — a measure of worker confidence — fell by 0.9% for both immigrants and the native-born. The immigrant participation rate remains well above the native-born rate. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
The immigrant labor force (working or looking for work) rose by 2.5%; the native-born labor force rose by 0.2%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS

Final note: over the past 12 months the foreign-born population of working age rose exactly three-times faster than the corresponding native-born population — 3.6% versus 1.2%. This disparity has persisted throughout the Great Recession.

This belies the notion that illegal immigrants have gone home and legal entry may have slowed during this grim time.

Obama and Romney can argue who can create the most jobs, but no program can fully benefit Americans unless it includes an immigration moratorium.

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