03/24/2005
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Social Security’s Immigration Scenarios |
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Annual Net Immigration |
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|
Calendar Year |
Total |
Legal |
Illegal |
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Historical Data |
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|
2000 |
1,077,579 |
677,579 |
400,000 |
|
2001 |
1,198,126 |
798,126 |
400,000 |
|
2002 |
1,197,801 |
797,801 |
400,000 |
|
2003 |
962,500 |
562,500 |
400,000 |
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Intermediate Cost (Normal Immigration) Estimates |
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|
2005 |
1,150,000 |
750,000 |
400,000 |
|
2010 |
1,025,000 |
625,000 |
400,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
900,000 |
600,000 |
300,000 |
|
Low Cost (High Immigration) Estimates |
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|
2005 |
1,475,000 |
925,000 |
550,000 |
|
2010 |
1,425,000 |
875,000 |
550,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
1,300,000 |
850,000 |
450,000 |
|
High Cost (Low Immigration) Estimates |
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|
2005 |
850,000 |
600,000 |
250,000 |
|
2010 |
722,500 |
472,500 |
250,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
672,500 |
472,500 |
200,000 |
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Source: Social Security Board of Trustees, 2004 Annual Report, Table V.A1. |
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Social Security’s Financial Projections |
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Under Different Immigration Levels |
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(As a percent of taxable payroll; 75-year period 2004-2078) |
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Net Immigration |
Trust Fund |
Trust Fund |
Trust Fund |
Year of |
|
per Year |
Income |
Costs |
Deficit |
Fund Exhaustion |
|
672,500 |
13.87% |
15.95% |
-2.08% |
2040 |
|
900,000 |
13.84% |
15.73% |
-1.89% |
2042 |
|
1,300,000 |
13.80% |
15.43% |
-1.63% |
2044 |
|
|
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Source: Social Securty Board of Trustees, 2004 Annual Report, Table VI.D3 |
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Edwin S. Rubenstein is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
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