National Data | Chart | Immigration-Driven Demographic Shift Dooming GOP

Future Republican Vote Based on 2004/2006

Voting Patterns and Projected Demographic Shifts

GOP Share of House Vote:

Racial Distribution of Voters

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Other

2006 actual

44.9%

79%

10%

8%

2%

1%

If 2004 Voting Pattern (a)

If 2006 Voting Pattern (b)

Projections (c):

2010

51.2%

43.3%

77.8%

10.2%

8.8%

2.2%

1.1%

2020

50.5%

42.4%

75.0%

10.8%

10.3%

2.6%

1.3%

2030

49.8%

41.5%

72.1%

11.4%

11.9%

3.1%

1.5%

2040

49.0%

40.4%

68.9%

12.0%

13.6%

3.6%

1.8%

2050

48.4%

39.4%

65.9%

12.6%

15.2%

4.2%

2.1%

a. 2004 GOP vote share (CNN exit poll): white 58%; Black 11%; Hispanic 40%; Asian 44%; Other 40%.

a. 2006 GOP vote share (CNN exit poll): white 51%; Black 10%; Hispanic 30%; Asian 37%; Other 42%.

c. Racial distribution of the future electorate is based on Census Bureau’s long-term population projections.