12/05/2006
Future Republican Vote Based on 2004/2006 |
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Voting Patterns and Projected Demographic Shifts |
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GOP Share of House Vote: |
Racial Distribution of Voters |
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White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Asian |
Other |
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2006 actual |
44.9% |
79% |
10% |
8% |
2% |
1% |
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If 2004 Voting Pattern (a) |
If 2006 Voting Pattern (b) |
Projections (c): |
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2010 |
51.2% |
43.3% |
77.8% |
10.2% |
8.8% |
2.2% |
1.1% |
2020 |
50.5% |
42.4% |
75.0% |
10.8% |
10.3% |
2.6% |
1.3% |
2030 |
49.8% |
41.5% |
72.1% |
11.4% |
11.9% |
3.1% |
1.5% |
2040 |
49.0% |
40.4% |
68.9% |
12.0% |
13.6% |
3.6% |
1.8% |
2050 |
48.4% |
39.4% |
65.9% |
12.6% |
15.2% |
4.2% |
2.1% |
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a. 2004 GOP vote share (CNN exit poll): white 58%; Black 11%; Hispanic 40%; Asian 44%; Other 40%. |
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a. 2006 GOP vote share (CNN exit poll): white 51%; Black 10%; Hispanic 30%; Asian 37%; Other 42%. |
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c. Racial distribution of the future electorate is based on Census Bureau’s long-term population projections. |
Edwin S. Rubenstein is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
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