07/05/2013
Just as the U.S. House of Representatives is returning from the July 4 recess to take up the Schumer/Rubio Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill, the Labor Department has reported that unemployment remained stubbornly stuck at 7.6% in June, although the reported 195,000 jobs created in June was better than expected. This persistently high unemployment is not surprising: nearly half of the June job gains are needed just to absorb the 90,000 legal immigrants that arrive in the U.S. every month. It’s why VDARE.com keeps saying there should be an immigration moratorium. Instead, incredibly, Schumer-Rubio proposes to double (at least) that legal influx.
Indeed, our analysis of the June data indicates that the job market is fairly strong — but for immigrant workers only. Native-born Americans continue to lose jobs, exit the labor force, and retire earlier than planned.
Result: immigrant displacement of American workers had reached an all-time Obama Era high.
The “other” employment survey, of Households, shows a 160,000 job gain in June. The Household Survey now reports place of birth (but not legal status — it includes illegals). This allows us to see that behind the job growth lie two disparate job markets:
Immigrant job growth north of 1.0% per month is particularly noteworthy. If that rate persists, immigrant employment will double within 72 months — or by June 2019. That surely rivals (exceeds?) immigrant job growth in any comparable period of U.S. history.
Perhaps there are seasonal factors that propel immigrant employment up faster than native-born employment in the month of June. Nevertheless, the spike in foreign-born employment this June stands in sharp contrast to the declines over the past two Junes.
In fact, the immigrant share of total U.S. employment in June — 16.34% — was higher than in any other June during the Obama years:
|
Foreign-born Employment (millions) |
|||
|
May |
June |
% chg. |
|
|
2009 |
21.499 |
21.665 |
0.77% |
|
2010 |
22.113 |
22.418 |
1.38% |
|
2011 |
22.176 |
22.134 |
-0.19% |
|
2012 |
22.967 |
22.859 |
-0.47% |
|
2013 |
23.298 |
23.542 |
1.05% |
|
Foreign-born Share of Total Employment (%) |
|||
|
May |
June |
% chg. |
|
|
2009 |
15.31% |
15.47% |
1.06% |
|
2010 |
15.86% |
16.11% |
1.60% |
|
2011 |
15.87% |
15.89% |
0.13% |
|
2012 |
16.14% |
16.05% |
-0.56% |
|
2013 |
16.19% |
16.34% |
0.94% |
|
Source: Author’s analysis of BLS unseasonalized data. |
|||
The displacement of native-born Americans by immigrants also reached an Obama-era peak in June. This is made clear in our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI). It tracks native-born and foreign-born employment growth for every month since the start of the Obama Administration:
Native-born employment growth is the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI — the ratio of immigrant to native-born job growth — is yellow. To chart American worker displacement, we set both the native-born and immigrant employment indexes in January 2009 at 100.0.
Since January 2009:
A more detailed picture of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in figures published in the BLS household monthly job report:
|
Employment Status by Nativity, June 2012-June 2013 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) |
||||
|
Jun-12 |
Jun-13 |
Change |
% Change |
|
|
Foreign born, 16 years and older |
||||
|
Civilian population |
37,315 |
37,658 |
343 |
0.9% |
|
Civilian labor force |
25,009 |
25,305 |
296 |
1.2% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
67.0% |
67.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Employed |
22,985 |
23,670 |
685 |
3.0% |
|
Employment/population % |
61.6% |
62.9% |
1.3% |
2.1% |
|
Unemployed |
2,024 |
1,635 |
-389 |
-19.2% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
8.1% |
6.5% |
-1.6% |
-19.8% |
|
Not in labor force |
12,306 |
12,353 |
47 |
0.4% |
|
Native born, 16 years and older |
||||
|
Civilian population |
205,840 |
207,894 |
2,054 |
1.0% |
|
Civilian labor force |
131,377 |
131,785 |
408 |
0.3% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
63.8% |
63.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.6% |
|
Employed |
120,217 |
121,172 |
955 |
0.8% |
|
Employment/population % |
58.4% |
58.3% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
Unemployed |
11,160 |
10,613 |
-547 |
-4.9% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
8.5% |
8.1% |
-0.4% |
-4.7% |
|
Not in labor force |
74,464 |
76,110 |
1,646 |
2.2% |
|
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation — June 2013, July 5, 2013. Table A-7. |
||||
Over the past 12 months:
Footnote: the herbivorous Center for Immigration Studies has just released a report, Immigrant Gains and Native Losses In the Job Market, 2000 to 2013,[PDF] which essentially confirms our work since 2004. CIS has a long record of triangulating against VDARE.com and not giving credit to anyone (ask them why not). Nevertheless, we welcome them to the club.
This is a content archive of VDARE.com, which Letitia James forced off of the Internet using lawfare.