10/23/2013
The shutdown-delayed employment report for September, which was supposed to be released about three weeks ago, found that only 148,000 jobs were added over the month. Even this may be too optimistic, as it reflects the situation prior to the government shutdown. Government employment actually rose in September.
Since January, employers have added an average of 177,000 net new jobs per month. The rate slipped over the summer, to only 143,000 per month. Unmentioned in Main Stream Media accounts of this disappointing development: more than half of the new positions will be needed just to absorb new legal immigrants.
This job growth slowdown should worry the Obama Administration, but it apparently it doesn’t. Indeed, the push to legalize millions of illegal aliens already working in the U.S. and increase legal immigration from its current record levels only intensified after the government re-opened for business. As we reported a few weeks ago, S.744 would add a minimum of 33 million more lifetime work permits in its first decade than would occur under current law.
Our analysis of the “other” employment report — of households rather than businesses — shows how desperate the situation has already become for native-born American workers.
In September:
September was the second successive month in which native-born American workers actually held fewer jobs in absolute terms, while foreign-born workers enjoyed robust job growth.
The number of employed immigrants rose by 0.87% in September — the largest growth rate recorded for that month since the economic recovery began in 2009. The immigrant share of U.S. employment — 16.62% — was the highest for any September during the Obama years.
Foreign-born Employment (millions) |
|||
August |
September |
% chg. |
|
2009 |
21,596 |
21,815 |
1.01% |
2010 |
22,311 |
22,173 |
-0.62% |
2011 |
22,200 |
22,162 |
-0.17% |
2012 |
23,019 |
23,143 |
0.54% |
2013 |
23,777 |
23,983 |
0.87% |
Foreign-born Share of Total Employment (%) |
|||
August |
September |
% chg. |
|
2009 |
15.49% |
15.72% |
1.48% |
2010 |
16.02% |
15.91% |
-0.69% |
2011 |
15.89% |
15.82% |
-0.44% |
2012 |
16.19% |
16.19% |
0.00% |
2013 |
16.49% |
16.62% |
0.78% |
Source: Author’s analysis of unseasonalized BLS data. |
From September 2009 to September 2013 the share of total jobs held by immigrants rose from 15.72% to 16.62%.
Had the immigrant share of employment remained at its September 2009 level, 1.30 million more native-born American workers would have been employed this September. The overall unemployment rate would have been about a percentage point lower than the 7.2% reported by the Labor Department.
We chart the displacement of native-born workers by immigrants in our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI). It tracks month to month changes in native-born American and foreign-born employment since the start of the Obama Administration:
The growth of native-born American employment is tracked by the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI — the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth — is in yellow. The graphic starts at 100.0 for both native-born and immigrant employment in January 2009, and tracks their growth since then.
From January 2009 to September 2013:
A more detailed picture of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in figures published in the BLS monthly job report:
Employment Status by Nativity, Sept. 2012- Sept. 2013 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) |
|||||
Sep-12 |
Sep-13 |
Change |
% Change |
||
Foreign born, 16 years and older |
|||||
Civilian population |
38,103 |
38,854 |
751 |
2.0% |
|
Civilian labor force |
25,116 |
25,713 |
597 |
2.4% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
65.9% |
66.2% |
0.3 %pts. |
0.5% |
|
Employed |
23,201 |
24,041 |
840 |
3.6% |
|
Employment/population % |
60.9% |
61.9% |
1.0 %pts. |
1.6% |
|
Unemployed |
1,915 |
1,871 |
-44 |
-2.3% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
7.6% |
6.5% |
-1.1 %pts. |
-14.5% |
|
Not in labor force |
12,986 |
13,142 |
156 |
1.2% |
|
Native born, 16 years and older |
|||||
Civilian population |
205,670 |
207,314 |
1,644 |
0.8% |
|
Civilian labor force |
129,958 |
129,823 |
-135 |
-0.1% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
63.2% |
62.6% |
-0.6 %pts. |
-0.9% |
|
Employed |
120,132 |
120,610 |
478 |
0.4% |
|
Employment/population % |
58.4% |
58.2% |
-0.2 %pts. |
-0.3% |
|
Unemployed |
9,826 |
9,213 |
-613 |
-6.2% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
7.6% |
7.1% |
-0.5 %pts. |
-6.6% |
|
Not in labor force |
75,711 |
77,491 |
1,780 |
2.4% |
|
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation — September 2013, October 22, 2013.Table A-7. |
|||||
Over the past 12 months:
Bottom line: Immigration policy is immiserating American workers — and that’s before the Schumer/ Rubio Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill, or any other related increase, kicks in.
Edwin S. Rubenstein is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants.
This is a content archive of VDARE.com, which Letitia James forced off of the Internet using lawfare.