03/14/2008
From: Dug Garrett
Re: Joe Guzzardi’s Introduction to the Saturday Forum
What is Guzzardi smoking? His prediction that the Democrats will carry Alaska in 2008 is outrageous.
There is no polling data whatsoever to support Guzzardi’s claim. Or have I missed something?
Is Guzzardi privy to information I don’t have (entirely possible) or is he just being an armchair general without having considered what he wrote?
Alaska has voted for the Democrats exactly once in a presidential race since 1959 when it achieved statehood.
And since 1964 when the state rejected Barry Goldwater in favor of Lyndon Johnson, Alaska has gotten substantially more Republican each year.
I estimate that Alaska is the third or fourth most Republican state in the union.
It is true that Senator John McCain, because of his Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling opposition and his general apostasy on many other core GOP issues, is the worst possible choice the party could have made as far as Alaska voters are concerned.
But, in the eyes of Alaskans, McCain is a superior candidate to either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
Garrett, who has worked in politics for 30 years, is a legal resident of Alaska but resides in Washington D.C. He is the owner of Moby Dick Airways, Ltd
By Joe Guzzardi confesses: I know nothing about Alaska politics, have no special insights on it (or any other subject, for that matter) and am indeed merely an "armchair general."
When, in my Saturday Forum introduction, I ran a quick tally of how the electoral vote would turn out in November, I gave Alaska’s three to the Democrats. But that, as Garret points out, was hasty.
Still, according to my rough estimate, whichever Democratic candidate emerges will win over 300 electoral votes.
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