05/05/2007
05/04/07 — A Reader Takes Hope From The Fizzled Immigration Demonstrations
From: A reader
I just read the Bureau of Labor Statistics article that reported unemployment for April was 4.5%, or about 6.8 million people out of a total workforce of roughly 150 million Americans. It got me thinking about how an amnesty of the estimated 12 to 20 million illegals might effect these numbers.
I assume the report doesn’t include those here illegally with the employment numbers, since they are supposed to be hiding out of sight from these government surveys. I also assume the vast majority of the illegal alien population are of employable age, say 75% for example.
If there is an amnesty, this would mean a new pool of about 9 to 15 million newly legalized workers who could now be hired by the vast majority of honest employers who would never have hired them before! Employers could potentially layoff millions of citizens who previously didn’t need to fear being replaced by this pool (while they were illegal) and hire from this pool at lower wages. Even if they didn’t, what would prevent these newly legalized workers from being laid off from their "underground" jobs that would then go to a new batch of "guest-workers" (or a new influx of illegals), and becoming eligible for unemployment benefits?
Bottom line: There exists the potential for a doubling or worst-case-scenario tripling of the unemployment rate! Are we ready for double-digit unemployment rates not seen in 25 years? Has Congress and the President given this any thought, not to mention all the State Governments that would bear the brunt of the cost? And it could last for years … the economy can’t create 9 to 15 million new jobs overnight.
This potential amnesty must be stopped!
[James Fulford writes: Ed Rubenstein keeps a fairly close eye on the BLS monthly figures, and we'll be publishing something about the latest figures tomorrow night.]
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