By Steve Sailer
03/11/2021
Earlier: Latest “Man Arrested” Is Black Shooter At Texas A & M — The Second Since October
This graph is for men age 24–34 over the time period 2000 to 2015. It measures victims of gun murders rather than offenders. The great majority of firearm homicides are intra-racial, suggesting that the racial ratios for firearm homicide offenders are even worse than this graph for firearm homicide victims.
From The Lancet:
June 2019
Firearm mortality is a leading, and largely avoidable, cause of death in the USA, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia. We aimed to assess the changes over time and demographic determinants of firearm deaths in these four countries between 1990 and 2015. …
The risk of firearm homicide was 14 times higher in black men in the USA aged 25–34 years with low educational attainment than comparably-educated white men (1·52% [99% CI 1·50–1·54] vs 0·11% [0·10–0·12]), and up to four times higher than in comparably-educated men in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. In the USA, the risk of firearm homicide was more than 30 times higher in black men with post-secondary education than comparably educated white men. …
Poorly educated black men in the USA were at the highest risk of mortality of any age group, sex, ethnicity, or educational subgroup across the four countries. …
In the USA, firearm deaths were the main contributor to the marked differences in the overall risk of mortality between young white and black men, regardless of educational level. …
Analysis stratified by race, intent, and education showed sharper differences among 15–34 year-old men. In the USA, the risk of firearm suicide was higher among young white men than black or Hispanic men, but when focusing on homicide, the pattern changed. The homicide analysis focused on the highest risk age group (men aged 25–34 years). At these ages, black men in the USA with high school or less education had a 1·52% risk (99% CI 1·50–1·54) of mortality from firearm homicide between 2000 and 2015. This risk was 14 times higher than that for comparably educated US white men (0·11%), two to four times higher than for comparably educated Brazilian brown, black, or white men, or Mexican men (range 0·38–0·67%), and 1·5 times higher than comparably educated Colombian men (1·05%). Among US men with high school or lower education, firearm homicides accounted for three-quarters of the nearly 2% absolute difference in overall mortality risk between black and white men. In the 25–34 year age group, the risk of firearm homicide was five times lower in US black men with post-secondary education than black men with high school or lower education. The risk of firearm homicide was ten times lower in US white men with post-secondary education than white men with high school or lower education. The risk of mortality from firearm homicide was 30 times higher for US black men with university or higher education than comparably educated US white men (0·30% vs 0·01%).
… In the USA, differences in the risk of firearm mortality between black and white men accounted for most of the overall difference in the risk of mortality among men aged 15–34 years (appendix p 24). About 41%, 17%, and 31% of the absolute decline in all-cause mortality risk among black, white, and Hispanic men aged 15–34 years, respectively, between 1990 and 2015, was attributable to a reduction in firearm mortality rates.
1990 was near the peak of the Crack Wars, while 2015 was the year after the long decline in murders that was reversed in 2015 in the First BLM Era.
Firearm homicide was highest among US black men aged 25–34 years with low educational attainment, and the effect of race on mortality was much greater in the USA than in Brazil. High educational attainment only partially protects young black men from firearm homicide in the USA; the risk of firearm mortality was three times higher among black men with post-secondary education than poorly educated white men, and 30 times higher than comparably educated white men.
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