VDARE-sailer-running

Has the Theory of “Racialized” Running Performance Been Debunked?

By Steve Sailer

03/13/2024

Earlier: “Track and Battlefield”: Sailer and Seiler on Women in Combat from 1997

With the Olympics coming up this summer in Paris only three years after the COVID-delayed Olympics in Tokyo, here’s a preprint attempting to debunk my arguments, going back to 1997, that Olympic running performance is related to human biodiversity.

Revisiting Stereotypes: Race and Running

Tade Souaiaiaa, Nabie Fofanah, Rawle De Lisle and Sheena Mason

The athletic achievements of African athletes in global running championships have long been subject to scientific and sociological inquiry. During the 1990s, a popular narrative emerged, suggesting that West African lineage conferred inherent sprinting advantages, and that North, South and East African’s are specialized for longer distances. Part and parcel to this narrative was the enthusiastic belief that it would very soon be substantiated by a genotyping revolution that would enable prognostication of individual athletic potential.

We revisit this hypothesis in the post-genomic era. First, we compare the global running records used to generate the racialist hypotheses with performances over the last twenty years (2004-2023). Focusing on the 100m reveals intriguing trends, including the ascendancy of Jamaica as a sprint powerhouse and the elevation of South African and East Asian sprinters to the global stage, a direct challenge to the racialist paradigm. In line with an in-depth analysis of the influences on elite runners, we build a regression model to predict 100m performance based on environmental and psychological factors.

Next, we direct our attention to 1500m, where the last two British champions have been part of a European resurgence that hasn’t been seen in decades. Examining three different time periods, we identify a thirty year national slowdown (1989-2018). Adapting our model to this time period reveals striking evidence that racial perception has greater impact on performance than racial physiology.

Synthesizing these findings, we introduce a psychocultural hypothesis, positing that interactions between racial perceptions and social dynamics shape the global distribution of running performance. We contrast this hypothesis with the racialist paradigm and propose extending it beyond sport where it offers insight across many domains.

The argument here is basically that if Nature can’t be proved beyond a shadow of a doubt to determine 100% of running results, then Nurture must be 100% responsible and race plays no role whatsoever other than stereotype threat.

Personally, I’ve always argued for the interplay of nature and nurture, but the authors and their friends appear to be convinced that that’s cheating: You’ve got to pick one and only one: nature or nurture? Which is it?

As I may have mentioned once or twice over the decades and millennia, in the race for the World’s Fastest Man, the Olympic 100m dash, the eight finalists have been extraordinarily sub-Saharan by ancestry going back to the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. At present, 79 of the last 80 finalists across the last ten Olympics have had at least one parent of primarily sub-Saharan ancestry.

On the other hand, a Chinese guy, Su Bingtian, broke that streak in 2021 by not just qualifying but winning his semifinal with a 9.83, using a spectacular start and then grimly muscling his way over the finish line in first:

And the fellow who almost caught him in the semi and won gold in the final with a 9.80, Lamont Marcell Jacobs, has an African American dad but a white mom.

So it could be that sprinting is getting slightly more diverse.

But still… 79 out of 80.

Most of the arguments the authors come up with are either ones that I’ve come up with too, or direct analogies. For example, they argue that countries go through cycles of greatness, such as British middle distance champions Steve Ovett, Sebastian Coe, and Steve Cram in the 1980s, or, with perhaps excessive enthusiasm, the British “Return to Greatness” in the mile since 2019.

I could well believe that an efflorescence of competition could egg runners on to great performances, as in Britain in the 1980s, whereas a decline in competition could sap times, as in America in the same era. Likewise, I wrote in 2004:

Why don’t American distance runners run as fast as they once did? It appears to be an instructive interaction of nature and nurture.

The decline has been absolute, not just relative to the rest of the world. From 1965 through 1967, three American high school boys (Jim Ryun [now a GOP Congressman from Kansas], Marty Liquori, and Tim Danielson) ran the mile in under four minutes. It didn’t happen again until Alan Webb did it in 2001. I suspect that what took the air out of the American middle distance balloon was Kenyan Kip Keino beating Ryun at Mexico City in the 1500m in 1968. This was at high altitude, where Keino was at home, so it didn’t seem so bad at first, but then the Kenyans just kept on winning. A huge boom in recreational distance running started in America in 1972 when Frank Shorter won the Olympic Marathon, but it didn’t lead to a new generation of world-class runners. The top endurance talent must have gone into mountain climbing or triathlons or bicycle racing or something else where they didn’t have to
compete with the Kenyans.

Anyway, here are currently the 100 fastest marathon runners of all time. The authors decline to consider marathon running for reasons. But it looks pretty informative to me:

Competitor DOB Nat Ethnicity
Kelvin KIPTUM 02 Dec 1999 KEN
Eliud KIPCHOGE 05 Nov 1984 KEN
Kenenisa BEKELE 13 Jun 1982 ETH
Sisay LEMMA 12 Dec 1990 ETH
Benson KIPRUTO 17 Mar 1991 KEN
Birhanu LEGESE 11 Sep 1994 ETH
Mosinet GEREMEW 12 Feb 1992 ETH
Timothy KIPLAGAT 18 Sep 1993 KEN
Dennis KIMETTO 22 Apr 1984 KEN
Evans CHEBET 10 Nov 1988 KEN
Gabriel Gerald GEAY 10 Sep 1996 TAN
Lawrence CHERONO 07 Aug 1988 KEN
Alexander Mutiso MUNYAO 10 Sep 1996 KEN
Emmanuel MUTAI 12 Oct 1984 KEN
Wilson Kipsang KIPROTICH 15 Mar 1982 KEN
Amos KIPRUTO 16 Sep 1992 KEN
Vincent Kipkemoi NGETICH 03 Jan 1999 KEN
Mule WASIHUN 20 Oct 1993 ETH
Tadese TAKELE 03 Aug 2002 ETH
Deresa GELETA ETH
Getaneh MOLLA 10 Jan 1994 ETH
Bashir ABDI 10 Feb 1989 BEL Somali
Patrick Makau MUSYOKI 02 Mar 1985 KEN
Tamirat TOLA 11 Aug 1991 ETH
Herpasa NEGASA 11 Sep 1993 ETH
Guye Idemo ADOLA 20 Oct 1990 ETH
Morhad AMDOUNI 21 Jun 1988 FRA Tunisian
Dawit WOLDE 19 May 1991 ETH
Stanley Kipleting BIWOTT 21 Apr 1986 KEN
Kinde ATANAW 15 Apr 1993 ETH
Reuben Kiprop KIPYEGO 21 Aug 1996 KEN
Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 Apr 1973 ETH
Leul GEBRESILASE 20 Sep 1992 ETH
Marius KIPSEREM 17 May 1988 KEN
Asefa MENGSTU 22 Jan 1988 ETH
Bernard Kiprop KOECH 31 Jan 1988 KEN
Geoffrey MUTAI 07 Oct 1981 KEN
Kaan Kigen ÖZBILEN 15 Jan 1986 TUR Kenyan
Barnabas KIPTUM 08 Dec 1986 KEN
Joshua BELET 10 Feb 1998 KEN
Elisha ROTICH 12 Apr 1990 KEN
Ronald KORIR 10 Apr 1991 KEN
Ayele ABSHERO 28 Dec 1990 ETH
Geoffrey KAMWOROR 22 Nov 1992 KEN
Tesfaye ABERA 31 Mar 1992 ETH
Duncan KIBET 25 Apr 1978 KEN
James Kipsang KWAMBAI 28 Feb 1983 KEN
Sammy KITWARA 26 Nov 1986 KEN
Vincent KIPCHUMBA 03 Aug 1990 KEN
Seifu TURA 19 Jun 1997 ETH
Tsegaye MEKONNEN 15 Jun 1995 ETH
Dickson CHUMBA 27 Oct 1986 KEN
Jonathan Kipleting KORIR 20 Nov 1986 KEN
Hayle LEMI 13 Sep 1994 ETH
CyBrian KOTUT 06 Jun 1992 KEN
Hiskel TEWELDE 15 Sep 1986 ERI
Bethwel KIBET 04 Aug 1991 KEN
Tsegaye KEBEDE 15 Jan 1987 ETH
Solomon DEKSISA 11 Mar 1994 ETH
Hailemaryam KIROS 05 Feb 1997 ETH
Haftu TEKLU 21 Jan 2000 ETH
El Hassan EL ABBASSI 13 Apr 1984 BRN Moroccan
Asrar HIYRDEN 25 Nov 1999 ETH
Hillary KIPSAMBU 04 Feb 1985 KEN
Andualem BELAY 05 Apr 1992 ETH
Lelisa DESISA 14 Jan 1990 ETH
Titus EKIRU 02 Jan 1992 KEN
Mekuant AYENEW 24 Oct 1991 ETH
Yemane TSEGAY 08 Apr 1985 ETH
Berhanu SHIFERAW 31 May 1993 ETH
Barselius KIPYEGO 22 Jul 1993 KEN
Stephen KISSA 01 Dec 1988 UGA
Kibiwott KANDIE 20 Jun 1996 KEN
Tadesse TOLA 31 Oct 1987 ETH
Shura KITATA 09 Jun 1996 ETH
Tsegaye GETACHEW 30 Nov 1996 ETH
Dino SEFIR 28 May 1988 ETH
Getu FELEKE 28 Nov 1986 ETH
Abebe NEGEWO 20 May 1984 ETH
Daniel DO NASCIMENTO 28 Jul 1998 BRA Black Brazilian
Feyisa LILESA 01 Feb 1990 ETH
Endeshaw NEGESSE 13 Mar 1988 ETH
Kenneth Kiprop KIPKEMOI 02 Aug 1984 KEN
Mathew Kipkoech KISORIO 16 May 1989 KEN
Chalu DESO 14 Dec 1997 ETH
Abayneh DEGU 01 Dec 1998 ETH
Brimin KIPKORIR 1989 KEN
Gashau AYALE 22 Aug 1996 ISR Ethiopian
Markos GENETI 07 Jun 1984 ETH
Titus KIPRUTO 25 Jun 1998 KEN
Paul TERGAT 17 Jun 1969 KEN
Sammy Kipchoge KORIR 12 Dec 1971 KEN
Jonathan MAIYO 05 May 1988 KEN
Kengo SUZUKI 11 Jun 1995 JPN Japanese
Abdi NAGEEYE 02 Mar 1989 NED Somali
Philemon KIPLIMO 10 Oct 1998 KEN
Bazezew ASMARE 11 Sep 1996 ETH
Amanal PETROS 17 May 1995 GER Eritrean
Gadisa BIRHANU 15 Sep 1992 ETH
Philemon RONO 08 Feb 1991 KEN

It appears to be 1 Japanese, 1 black Brazilian, 2 North Africans, and a whole bunch of East Africans, almost all of them Kenyans or Ethiopians. Among the top 100 all-time marathoners, there are 46 running for Ethiopia and 44 running for Kenya.

What about among the top 100 100-meter men?

Mark WIND Competitor DOB Nat Ethnicity
9.58 0.9 Usain BOLT 21 Aug 1986 JAM Caribbean Black
9.69 2 Tyson GAY 09 Aug 1982 USA African-American
9.69 -0.1 Yohan BLAKE 26 Dec 1989 JAM Caribbean Black
9.72 0.2 Asafa POWELL 23 Nov 1982 JAM Caribbean Black
9.74 0.9 Justin GATLIN 10 Feb 1982 USA African-American
9.76 0.6 Christian COLEMAN 06 Mar 1996 USA African-American
9.76 1.2 Trayvon BROMELL 10 Jul 1995 USA African-American
9.76 1.4 Fred KERLEY 07 May 1995 USA African-American
9.77 1.2 Ferdinand OMANYALA 02 Jan 1996 KEN Luhya Bantu
9.78 0.9 Nesta CARTER 11 Oct 1985 JAM Caribbean Black
9.79 0.1 Maurice GREENE 23 Jul 1974 USA African-American
9.8 1.3 Steve MULLINGS 29 Nov 1982 JAM Caribbean Black
9.8 0.1 Lamont Marcell JACOBS 26 Sep 1994 ITA White and African-American
9.82 1.7 Richard THOMPSON 07 Jun 1985 TTO Caribbean Black
9.83 0.9 Bingtian SU 29 Aug 1989 CHN Chinese
9.83 0.9 Ronnie BAKER 15 Oct 1993 USA African-American
9.83 1.3 Zharnel HUGHES 13 Jul 1995 GBR Caribbean Black
9.83 0 Noah LYLES 18 Jul 1997 USA African-American
9.84 0.7 Donovan BAILEY 16 Dec 1967 CAN Caribbean Black
9.84 0.2 Bruny SURIN 12 Jul 1967 CAN Caribbean Black
9.84 1.2 Akani SIMBINE 21 Sep 1993 RSA Southern African
9.85 1.2 Leroy BURRELL 21 Feb 1967 USA African-American
9.85 1.7 Olusoji Adetokunbo FASUBA 09 Jul 1984 NGR West African
9.85 1.3 Michael RODGERS 24 Apr 1985 USA African-American
9.85 1.5 Marvin BRACY 15 Dec 1993 USA African-American
9.85 0.4 Kishane THOMPSON 17 Jul 2001 JAM Caribbean Black
9.86 1.2 Carl LEWIS 01 Jul 1961 USA African-American
9.86 -0.4 Frank FREDERICKS 02 Oct 1967 NAM Southwest African
9.86 1.8 Ato BOLDON 30 Dec 1973 TTO Caribbean Black
9.86 0.6 Francis OBIKWELU 22 Nov 1978 POR West African
9.86 1.4 Keston BLEDMAN 08 Mar 1988 TTO Caribbean Black
9.86 1.3 Jimmy VICAUT 27 Feb 1992 FRA White and West African
9.86 0.8 Divine ODUDURU 07 Oct 1996 NGR West African
9.86 1.6 Michael NORMAN 03 Dec 1997 USA African-American
9.86 0.2 Oblique SEVILLE 16 Mar 2001 JAM Caribbean Black
9.86 0.7 Micah WILLIAMS 12 Nov 2001 USA African-American
9.87 0.3 Linford CHRISTIE 02 Apr 1960 GBR Caribbean Black
9.87 -0.2 Obadele THOMPSON 30 Mar 1976 BAR Caribbean Black
9.88 1.8 Shawn CRAWFORD 14 Jan 1978 USA African-American
9.88 1 Walter DIX 31 Jan 1986 USA African-American
9.88 0.9 Ryan BAILEY 13 Apr 1989 USA African-American
9.88 1 Michael FRATER 06 Oct 1982 JAM Caribbean Black
9.88 0 Letsile TEBOGO 07 Jun 2003 BOT Southern African
9.89 1.6 Travis PADGETT 13 Dec 1986 USA African-American
9.89 1.6 Darvis PATTON 04 Dec 1977 USA African-American
9.89 1.3 Ngonidzashe MAKUSHA 11 Mar 1987 ZIM Southern African
9.89 0.2 Isiah YOUNG 05 Jan 1990 USA African-American
9.89 0.8 Kenneth BEDNAREK 14 Oct 1998 USA African-American
9.89 0.1 Andre DE GRASSE 10 Nov 1994 CAN Caribbean Black
9.89 1 Ackeem BLAKE 21 Jan 2002 JAM Caribbean Black
9.89 1.3 Pjai AUSTIN 19 Sep 2000 USA African-American
9.89 1.8 Courtney LINDSEY 18 Nov 1998 USA African-American
9.89 0.8 Issamade ASINGA 29 Dec 2004 SUR Caribbean Black
9.9 0.4 Nickel ASHMEADE 07 Apr 1990 JAM Caribbean Black
9.9 2 Benjamin AZAMATI 14 Jan 1998 GHA West African
9.9 1.8 Elijah HALL 22 Aug 1994 USA African-American
9.9 1.8 Godson Oke OGHENEBRUME 27 May 2003 NGR West African
9.9 0.9 Cravont CHARLESTON 02 Jan 1998 USA African-American
9.91 1.2 Dennis MITCHELL 20 Feb 1966 USA African-American
9.91 0.9 Leonard SCOTT 19 Jan 1980 USA African-American
9.91 -0.5 Derrick ATKINS 05 Jan 1984 BAH Caribbean Black
9.91 -0.2 Daniel BAILEY 09 Sep 1986 ANT Caribbean Black
9.91 0.7 Churandy MARTINA 03 Jul 1984 NED Caribbean Black
9.91 1.1 James DASAOLU 05 Sep 1987 GBR West African
9.91 1.8 Femi OGUNODE 15 May 1991 QAT West African
9.91 1 Julian FORTE 07 Jan 1993 JAM Caribbean Black
9.91 1 Terrence JONES 08 Nov 2002 BAH Caribbean Black
9.91 1.8 Shaun MASWANGANYI 01 Feb 2001 RSA Southern African
9.91 1.1 Rohan WATSON 29 Apr 2002 JAM Caribbean Black
9.92 0.3 Andre CASON 20 Jan 1969 USA African-American
9.92 0.8 Jon DRUMMOND 09 Sep 1968 USA African-American
9.92 0.2 Tim MONTGOMERY 28 Jan 1975 USA African-American
9.92 -0.2 Seun OGUNKOYA 28 Dec 1977 NGR West African
9.92 1 Tim HARDEN 27 Jan 1974 USA African-American
9.92 2 Christophe LEMAITRE 11 Jun 1990 FRA White
9.92 -0.8 Kemar BAILEY-COLE 10 Jan 1992 JAM Caribbean Black
9.92 0.9 Jak Ali HARVEY 04 May 1989 TUR Caribbean Black
9.92 1.4 Udodi Chudi ONWUZURIKE 29 Jan 2003 NGR West African
9.93 1.4 Calvin SMITH 08 Jan 1961 USA African-American
9.93 -0.6 Michael MARSH 04 Aug 1967 USA African-American
9.93 1.8 Patrick JOHNSON 26 Sep 1972 AUS Australian Aboriginal-Irish
9.93 1.1 Ivory WILLIAMS 02 May 1985 USA African-American
9.93 1.8 Kemarley BROWN 20 Jul 1992 JAM Caribbean Black
9.93 1.7 Clayton VAUGHN 15 May 1992 USA African-American
9.93 1.9 Kim COLLINS 05 Apr 1976 SKN Caribbean Black
9.93 0.8 Cameron BURRELL 11 Sep 1994 USA African-American
9.93 1.6 Christopher BELCHER 29 Jan 1994 USA African-American
9.93 0.8 Cravon GILLESPIE 31 Jul 1996 USA African-American
9.93 1.9 Arthur CISSÉ 29 Dec 1996 CIV West African
9.93 -1.2 Reece PRESCOD 29 Feb 1996 GBR Caribbean Black?
9.93 0.1 Eugene AMO-DADZIE 22 Jun 1992 GBR West African
9.94 0.2 Davidson EZINWA 22 Nov 1971 NGR West African
9.94 -0.2 Bernard WILLIAMS 19 Jan 1978 USA African-American
9.94 1.7 Diondre BATSON 13 Jul 1992 USA African-American
9.94 1.4 Andrew FISHER 15 Dec 1991 JAM Caribbean Black
9.94 1 Ameer WEBB 19 Mar 1991 USA African-American
9.94 0.9 Wayde VAN NIEKERK 15 Jul 1992 RSA Cape Coloured
9.94 1.6 Jo’Vaughn MARTIN USA African-American
9.94 1.3 Gift LEOTLELA 12 May 1998 RSA Southern African
9.94 0.8 Joseph Paul AMOAH 12 Jan 1997 GHA West African

Among the top 100 all-time 100-meter men (9.94 or lower), there is one East Asian (Su Bingtian), one white (Frenchman Christophe LeMaitre), one half Australian Aborigine and half Irishman (Patrick Johnson), and one Cape Coloured (Wayde Van Niekerk). I believe there are two half-blacks (Jacobs and Jimmy Vicault, although I could be understating this number).

Guess the Nilotic marathoner vs. the Bantu 100m man

There is now one East African top man in the 100m, Ferdinand Omanyala of Kenya. Yet, note that he is of the Bantu tribe, which is quite distinct from the Nilotic Luo tribe of former president Obama. Omanyala is much wider and more muscular than the Kenyan Nilotic Kalenjin distance runners, such as marathon great Eliud Kipchoge.

The authors make a big deal about how the fact that there are now five Southern Africans (and one Southwest African, 1990s star Frankie Fredericks of Namibia) somehow disproves the “racialist” perspective that West Africans are better at sprinting and East Africans at distance running, but the theory was always that sub-Saharans have overall advantages in running speed that are partly specialized by sprint vs. distance.

43 of the top 100m men are African-American, 32 are ethnically Caribbean, and 11 of the top 100 are ethnically recent West Africans.

The authors emphasize that West Africans are not as abundant as the theory that West Africa is the motherlode of sprint speed would suggest, but there are obvious nurture differences: life expectancy in Nigeria is only 54 years compared to 74 years in Jamaica.

So, I dunno. It looks like, as of 2024, that both Nature and Nurture play significant roles in running performance. But then I’m a bad person, so I would say that, wouldn’t I?

[Comment at Unz.com]

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