By Steve Sailer
06/26/2022
Here are the CDC’s provisional per capita death rates by month through November 2021 (December won’t be available until next month) for homicides and motor vehicles:
Blacks are much more likely to die by homicide than anybody else, followed by American Indians. One interesting difference is that the great majority of black homicide deaths are from gunshots, while a substantial fraction of Indian homicide deaths remains by other means.
Summing up the first eleven months of the last four years, the (almost) annual rate of increase has been:
| Change: First 11 months of: | Black | White | Asian | Hispanic | American Indian |
| ’19 vs. ’18 | 4% | -6% | 8% | 0% | 3% |
| 20 vs. 19 | 35% | 19% | -1% | 24% | 21% |
| 21 vs. 20 | 7% | 1% | 5% | 13% | -13% |
| 21 vs.18 | 49% | 12% | 13% | 40% | 9% |
So, black homicides are up 49% from 2018 to 2021, Hispanics up 40%, and the other three races in the 9%-13% range.
Changes in Motor Vehicle per capita (not per mile) death rates have tended to correlate with changes in homicide rates during the Great Awokening. There might be a lot of reasons for this, but I’m guessing concerns about being stopped and searched by cops play a sizable role both in likelihood of dangerous driving and in likelihood of carrying an illegal hand gun.
American Indians are notoriously dangerous drivers per capita, but blacks emerged from the pack in June 2020 to grab a solid hold on second place. Indians pulled away in 2021, but other groups seemed to be narrowing the gap with blacks in late 2021.
| Change: First 11 months of: | Black | White | Asian | Hispanic | American Indian |
| ’19 vs. ’18 | 0% | -1% | -3% | -1% | -11% |
| 20 vs. 19 | 27% | 3% | -9% | 13% | 1% |
| 21 vs. 20 | 9% | 9% | 18% | 16% | 34% |
| 21 vs. 18 | 38% | 10% | 4% | 30% | 20% |
Just as blacks have gotten 49% more likely to die by homicide from Jan-Nov 2018 to Jan-Nov 2021, they’ve gotten 38% more likely to die in motor vehicle accidents. Hispanics are up 40% in homicides and 30% in car crashes.
Perhaps less worry about racial profiling during the racial reckoning contributes to both?
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