Here’s what researchers have learned from 733 Tallahassee homicides and shootings, Tallahassee Democrat, October 19, 2023
A Florida State University College of Criminology and Criminal Justice study confirmed what many have unofficially concluded on their own: Tallahassee and Leon County is experiencing a spike in violent crime.
The college gathered cases from both the Tallahassee Police Department and the Leon County Sheriff’s Office June 4, 2019, to June 4, 2023 to determine the extent of gun violence, who’s involved in the violence and where it’s occurring.
Researchers scoured through 733 homicide and non-fatal shooting files, and these are key takeaways from their findings.
Gun violence was mostly concentrated in 4 neighborhoods
Violent crime wasn’t evenly distributed across Leon County.
The highest crime rates were heavily concentrated in ZIP codes 32301, 32303, 32304 and 32310, specifically the Providence, Bond, Frenchtown and Southside neighborhoods.
“Neighborhoods with high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage and divorce experienced significantly great incidence rates of gun violence,” the study says.
Roughly 80% of incidents occurred in these areas.
Frenchtown had 76 documented incidents — the most compared with the other three neighborhoods — but Providence and Bond’s gun violence rate is five times higher than other neighborhoods.
“In sum, these results suggest that gun violence interventions should be geographically targeted in these areas,” the study says.
Homicide rates have nearly doubled over the past decade
Homicide and firearm assault rates in Leon County steadily increased over the past 20 years surpassing the state and comparable counties’ averages.
In one decade, the homicide rate went from 5.46 in 2010 to 9.68 in 2020.
“Trends in non-fatal shootings diverged across areas in 2014 when Leon County’s rate skyrocketed,” the study says.
The rate reached around 168 incidents per 100,000 people — a spike that wasn’t seen in the state or Alachua County, the comparable population referenced in the study.
Since 2019, rates have been steadily increasing peaking in 2022 with 237 incidents. So far 192 incidents have occurred this year, but researchers are projecting a “modest decline” for the remainder of the year.
Victims and suspects were typically Black males in their 20s
Gun violence impacted 1,255 victims and 414 known suspects were identified.
The age and racial demographics of both victims and suspects was disproportionately Black males in their late 20s.
The average age of a victim is roughly 28 years old, and the average age of a suspect is roughly 27 years old. Victims were 82% Black, and suspects were almost 84% Black.
Victims were evenly distributed between male and female, but suspects were disproportionately male.
Homicides were significantly more likely to involve acquaintances
The most common victim-suspect relationship was strangers, but homicides are “significantly more likely” to involve acquaintances than non-fatal assaults.
Roughly 45% of incidents involved strangers, 40% involved acquaintances, 10% involved intimate partners and 5% involved family members.
“A relatively large proportion of victims of both homicides and nonfatal assaults are suspected gang members,” the study says. “A smaller proportion of suspects were suspected gang members.”
But “these figures should be interpreted with caution, however, as research assistants were unable to confirm most gang affiliations,” and less than a third of known suspects were affiliated with gangs.
FSU was also unable to identify the specific gangs.
Less than one third of all cases were officially cleared
Of the 733 homicide and non-fatal shooting cases, only 30% were solved.
“Cases in which victims cooperated with law enforcement were significantly more likely to be cleared than incidents without cooperation,” the study says.
Roughly 20% of victims didn’t cooperate with law enforcement.
Homicides are far more likely to be cleared than non-fatal shootings. Of the cleared incidents, almost 72% of homicides are solved and roughly 28% of non-fatal shootings are solved.
Prevention and intervention recommendations
Based on the discoveries made, FSU’s researchers were also tasked with advising law enforcement agencies and city leaders about the best prevention and intervention strategies.
Researchers recommend using geographic-specific interventions methods because of the crime clusters in the four specific neighborhoods.
And interventions need to address petty arguments, concerns about disrespect and gang/drug related conflict because these were the most common instigators and circumstances that led to instances of gun violence.