11/08/2008
In 1997, Ed Rubenstein and I wrote a National Review cover story, Electing A New People, basically making three points:1] a static point: in American politics, race is destiny — the races vote systematically differently and these differences are very slow to change; 2] a dynamic point: the major parties' share of the overall vote sways back and forth according to political conditions, and the proportion they get of each race’s vote sways back and forth in parallel (but the differences between the races remain roughly the same); 3] an immigration point: immigration policy is shifting America’s racial balance toward minorities, and therefore the ability of the Republican Party to win national elections is being steadily reduced.
We updated the article in 2000. Subsequently, Steve Sailer has been making a related point on VDARE.COM: the most practical electoral strategy for the GOP is more fully to access its white base — what we call the "Sailer Strategy".
Although you wouldn’t know it from the MSM, McCain easily won the white vote — what would until the 1965 Immigration Act have been called the "American" vote — 55%-43% according to CNN exit polls. This is actually a significant achievement, considering the disaster of the Bush Presidency.
I asked Ed to take this year’s result, the share of the different racial groups that McCain got in 2008, and project it backwards, calculating what McCain’s share of the overall popular vote would have been if adjusted for the racial balance that in fact existed in the U.S. at the time.
The result: McCain would have won a majority of overall popular vote as recently as 1976.
I remember 1976. Jimmy Carter beat Jerry Ford. This analysis suggests that McCain ran slightly better than Ford, although of course much worse than Reagan in 1984. But McCain still didn’t win the Presidency in 2008, because public policy (which he stupidly supported) had shifted the racial balance against him.
You won’t read about this in the new, post-purge National Review, where they are wittering about the middle class and even (and to think they once opposed Nelson Rockefeller) the "center".
Moral for the GOP: Stop. Immigration. Now. Deport. Illegals. Now. Reform the Citizen Child Clause. Now.
Or at least when you next have the chance.
The details:
|
Year |
McCain’s 2008 overall vote, adjusted for shifting racial balance |
Actual GOP Vote % |
|
2008 |
45.6% |
45.6 |
|
2004 |
46.6% |
50.6 |
|
2000 |
48.1% |
47.8 |
|
1996 |
48.3% |
40.7 |
|
1992 |
49.2% |
37.1* |
|
1988 |
49.2% |
53.1 |
|
1984 |
49.2% |
58.5 |
|
1980 |
49.9% |
50.5 |
|
1976 |
50.2% |
48.0 |
|
1972 |
50.3% |
60.2 |
This is a content archive of VDARE.com, which Letitia James forced off of the Internet using lawfare.