More Polls Show Slight Romney Lead, But White Share Still Stuck in McCain’s 55% Losing Range

By Peter Brimelow

10/10/2012

Mitt Romney is now widely said to be "surging" in the Presidential polls, although that does seem a little excitable — he’s only 0.8% ahead of Barack Obama in today’s RealClearPolitics Average. Still, several polls do show him slightly ahead.

As usual, the white vote is little discussed, although there’s much fashionable MSM chatter about the female vote, a much less powerful analytic. (Typical example here). Even pollsters often don’t release their white share data, although they must have it. VDARE.com digging has revealed:

• Rasmussen’s three-day tracking poll released today, October 10, shows Obama down a point, so that Romney is now in the lead 48-47. Romney’s white share, available to its premium Platinum subscribers, is actually down a point, at 55%.
• The IBD/TIPP poll for October 9 shows Romney ahead 47%-45%. Romney’s white share is 56%.
• Ipsos/ Reuters Daily Election Tracking released October 9 showed a Romney-Obama tie among likely voters, 45-45. Ipsos does not break out its likely voters by race, but has kindly told us that among its registered voters, where Romney trails 45-42, his white share is only 50% (!)
• Gallup’s latest (October 9) tracking poll shows Romney ahead 49-47 among likely voters, but does not break out the white vote.

Romney’s white share still seems stalled in the post-Reagan Bush-McCain range. There is still no sign he will even match the 60% share achieved by GOP Congressional candidates in 2010. (More white share comparisons here — scroll down).

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