By Steve Sailer
09/29/2020
From the New York Times Upshot section:
Murders Are Rising. Blaming a Party Doesn’t Add Up.
The data reveals a different picture than the party-driven explanation President Trump and the Department of Justice have offered.By Jeff Asher
Sept. 28, 2020Jeff Asher is a crime analyst based in New Orleans and co-founder of AH Datalytics. You can follow him on Twitter at @Crimealytics.
By the way, Mr. and Mrs. Asher have infant triplets.
… Over all, in 59 cities with murder data available through at least July this year, murder is up 28 percent relative to the matching time frame in 2019. …
Big cities tend to overstate national crime trends, so a smaller rise in murder would be expected nationally, but a 15 percent increase in murders nationally in 2020 would be the largest one-year increase in modern American history in terms of both raw numbers and percent change (reliable data on national murder trends began in 1960).
Murder started rising after the emergence of Black Lives Matter at Ferguson in August 2014, but then dropped a little after Trump’s election, only to surge after BLM returned with a vengeance in the Summer of George.
When Black Lives Matter is riding high, blacks shoot each other more.
Here’s my sort of Jeff Asher’s spreadsheet of murders in 59 reporting cities through various dates in September compared to 2019. Some interesting cities, such as Pittsburgh and Memphis, are missing, but overall it’s a pretty good tabulation.
| City | 2019 | 2020 | Change |
| All Reported Cities | 3905 | 5003 | 28% |
| Lubbock | 9 | 22 | 144% |
| Milwaukee | 66 | 134 | 103% |
| Fort Wayne | 13 | 24 | 85% |
| Minneapolis | 32 | 57 | 78% |
| Riverside | 7 | 12 | 71% |
| Louisville | 62 | 104 | 68% |
| Toledo | 22 | 36 | 64% |
| Fort Worth | 31 | 49 | 58% |
| Colorado Springs | 14 | 22 | 57% |
| Lexington | 16 | 25 | 56% |
| Aurora | 15 | 23 | 53% |
| New Orleans | 87 | 133 | 53% |
| Boston | 30 | 45 | 50% |
| Chicago | 374 | 560 | 50% |
| Denver | 43 | 63 | 47% |
| Arlington | 13 | 19 | 46% |
| Austin | 23 | 33 | 43% |
| Atlanta | 69 | 97 | 41% |
| San Bernardino | 25 | 35 | 40% |
| New York | 236 | 327 | 39% |
| St Louis | 136 | 185 | 36% |
| Nashville | 54 | 73 | 35% |
| Cincinnati | 54 | 73 | 35% |
| Greensboro | 30 | 40 | 33% |
| Indianapolis | 98 | 129 | 32% |
| Houston | 176 | 229 | 30% |
| Philadelphia | 243 | 315 | 30% |
| Cleveland | 88 | 114 | 30% |
| Miami | 60 | 77 | 28% |
| Sacramento | 18 | 23 | 28% |
| Kansas City | 113 | 144 | 27% |
| Tulsa | 37 | 47 | 27% |
| Oakland | 52 | 66 | 27% |
| Seattle | 23 | 29 | 26% |
| San Antonio | 66 | 83 | 26% |
| San Diego | 24 | 30 | 25% |
| Detroit | 187 | 230 | 23% |
| San Francisco | 23 | 27 | 17% |
| Jacksonville | 93 | 108 | 16% |
| Charlotte | 73 | 84 | 15% |
| Portland | 22 | 25 | 14% |
| Los Angeles | 197 | 223 | 13% |
| Washington | 126 | 140 | 11% |
| Stockton | 28 | 31 | 11% |
| Bakersfield | 27 | 29 | 7% |
| Long Beach | 18 | 19 | 6% |
| Omaha | 23 | 24 | 4% |
| Dallas | 151 | 157 | 4% |
| Las Vegas | 64 | 64 | 0% |
| Lincoln | 4 | 4 | 0% |
| Plano | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Baltimore | 247 | 240 | -3% |
| San Jose | 24 | 21 | -13% |
| Newark | 37 | 31 | -16% |
| Durham | 22 | 18 | -18% |
| Oklahoma City | 39 | 31 | -21% |
| Virginia Beach | 9 | 6 | -33% |
| Chula Vista | 11 | 7 | -36% |
| Anchorage | 20 | 6 | -70% |
These are pretty awful numbers in BLM cities like Minneapolis (+78%), Milwaukee (+103%), Louisville (+68%), and Atlanta (+41%), slightly less awful in Antifa cities like Seattle (+26%) and Portland (+14%).
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