Nov. 5: Still Deadlocked — Romney’s White Share Still Below 2010’s 60%
11/05/2012
There’s no breakthrough for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama in the most recent opinion polls. All show statistical dead heats, although Romney does now have a couple of single-point leads. And all show Romney’s white share below the 60% achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here — scroll down).
Ominously, the Congressional Republicans white share is polling five points lower in this contest.
- Pew Poll (Nov. 4) had Romney trailing Obama 50-47.
Pew’s white poll respondents favored Romney by 15 points:
|
RACE |
Obama |
Romney |
|
|
White, non-Hispanic |
39 |
54 |
|
|
Black, non-Hispanic |
93 |
2 |
|
|
Hispanics |
66 |
27 |
|
- Today’s CNN Poll (Nov. 5) shows a tie between Romney and Obama, 49-49.
Romney white share: 57%, 17 points ahead of Obama. Oddly, non-white numbers are shown as N/A –not enough response.
- Monmouth/ Survey USA / Braun (Nov. 5) shows Romney tied with Obama 48-48.
Monmouth shows Romney’s white share at a high (for him) 59%, for a twenty point lead over Obama.
- Gallup (Nov. 5) has Romney ahead of Obama, 49-48. This is the first Gallup poll since Hurricane Sandy, when Romney had a five-point lead.
Gallup has not published a racial breakdown since Oct. 16, when it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share. That translated into a four-point national lead over Obama.
- Rasmussen Reports (Nov. 5) has Romney back a point ahead Obama, 49-48.
Platinum Subscribers to Rasmussen can view the crosstabs, which show Romney and Obama both edging up another point among whites, so that Romney’s lead remains 18 points:
|
Candidate |
White |
Black |
Other |
|
Romney |
58% |
4% |
46% |
|
Obama |
40% |
93% |
49% |
Further indication of Romney (possibly fatal) weakness among Northern whites: in the much-touted swing state of Ohio, Rasmussen shows him back down to a tie with Obama 48-48. Romney’s white share in the state: a mediocre 56%, for a mere fifteen-point lead over Obama.
It’s rubbing off: Rasmussen also shows Republicans and Democrats tied in a generic Congressional ballot, 46-46.
The Republican white share: 55% — down five points since the 2010 Election.