By Steve Sailer
10/23/2013
With our intellectual vanguard looking forward to increased immigration and putting average Americans on a bean-based diet, it’s worth considering just how many relatively poor foreigners there might turn out to be in the future.
The U.N. puts a lot of effort into projecting populations. Obviously, they should be taken with a grain of salt, but reading them is better than putting your fingers in your ears and chanting "I can’t hear you!"
The Daily Mail reported in June:
Global population to soar to 11 billion by 2100 as African population quadruples
Projection is 800 million more than a previous UN forecast of 10.1 billion
Researchers had expected fertility in Africa to more fall quickly
By JILL REILLY
PUBLISHED: 10:29 EST, 13 June 2013
The world’s population will reach almost eleven billion by the end of the century because of soaring birth rates in Africa, according to new research.
… Researchers had expected fertility on the poorest continent where a woman will give birth to an average of 5.2 children in her lifetime, to fall more quickly than it has.
The current African population is about 1.1 billion and it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion, nearly a fourfold increase, by 2100.
Professor Adrian Raftery, of the University of Washington, said: 'The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up.'
The UN’s tables make interesting reading.
For example, the population of Tanzania was 7.7 million in 1950, and it’s now 49.3 million. The projection for 2025 (in 12 years) is 69.3 million, in 2050 (in 38 years) is 129.4 million, and in 2100 it’s seven googol gazillion 275.6 million.
Nigeria, in contrast, isn’t expected to grow as fast as Tanzania, in percentage terms:
I certainly don’t take these UN projections as gospel, but you have to say they are interesting. I realize, however, that’s not a universal opinion. Even though immigration is on the table in the House, few in American public life seem aware of these UN projections or their implications for immigration policy.
I would suspect, however, that the government of Israel pays closer attention to UN population forecasts than does the government of the United States. Perhaps rather than the government of Israel trying to hire failed American officials like Larry Summers and Ben Bernanke, the government of the United States should try to hire successful Israeli officials with strong track records of preventing illegal immigration?
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