09/01/2020
The racial distribution of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but for a Democrat congressperson in 2018:
Those who presumably experienced voter’s remorse are whiter than the electorate as a whole is. That is not the case for those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but for a Republican congressperson in 2018:
Has the Democrat electorate become more white over the last four years? Has the Republican electorate become less so? The relatively large share of Hispanics in the faction that shifted towards the GOP from 2016 to 2018 is especially interesting. Trump is probably more relatable to non-whites than Ted Cruz, John Kasich, or Jeb Bush are, despite the latter’s Mexican wife.
On the other hand, maybe I have it backwards. Perhaps the large share of Trump-to-Democrat whites are union member type Democrats who took a chance on Trump and then moved back home in response to a corporate tax cut being Trump’s biggest first term accomplishment. And perhaps a large share of the Clinton-to-GOP non-whites are small business non-traditional Republicans turned off by Trump’s rhetorically hard-line immigration stance but ready to back their Chamber of Commerce local Republican representative.
CCES18 variables used: CC18_317(1-2), CC18_412(1-2), RACE
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