02/11/2014
Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende in his article today (Feb. 11), Will Demographics Really Destroy GOP?, continues his great work in smuggling what we at VDARE.com refer to as the Sailer Strategy into MSM debate: basically, the GOP needs not outreach, but inreach — it needs to mobilize its white base.
Key excerpts [emphases added]:
The minority vote share, which we all agree is overwhelmingly Democratic, doubled from 1992, yet Obama’s share of the popular vote was smaller than Clinton’s. There is really only one explanation for this: There has been an offsetting movement among whites. How much farther will that vote shift? I’ll obviously concede that at some point you run out of white people, and there’s a theoretical maximum to the share of the white vote that Republicans can win. But where is it? 60 percent? 65 percent? 70 percent? …
One of the large outstanding questions is whether Democrats can maintain African-Americans as 13 percent of the electorate and giving 93 percent of their votes to the Democrat without Obama atop the ticket. I could argue this either way, but there’s a reasonable chance the white share of the electorate will either be flat or increase in 2016 …
In 2012, running in a mediocre-to-unfavorable environment, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. In other words, a Republican running in a mediocre year performs about as well with whites as a Republican used to perform running in a great Republican year. If a Republican president were running with 7 percent growth at his or her back, I’m fairly certain he or she would eclipse Reagan’s 1984 mark …
Hispanics are much less important in terms of the Electoral College than they are in terms of the popular vote. This is because Hispanics are heavily concentrated in the South and West. … In fact, if the Democrats were to increase their vote share among Hispanics somehow by another 10 percent, Republicans could nevertheless win the presidency by increasing their share among whites by just four points …
None of this is new to VDARE.com readers, but it is certainly new to much of the MSM, which will not welcome it. Despite making various appeasing gestures ("while I think it might well be the case that the GOP should adopt some changes, that doesn’t lead to the conclusion that they must"), Trende is clearly at risk from the Curse of Stein.
Congratulate Trende — while you can.
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