03/29/2020
Here’s a fairly optimistic forecast from Prof. Christopher J.L. Murray of the University of Washington: that if the lockdown intensifies, deaths will peak in mid-April and the worst will be over by June 1, assuming we stick with it, with total deaths nationally under 100k (at least in just the First Wave).
The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
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