01/08/2016
The Apocalypse Ticket
This is Virginia Dare and you’re listening to VDARE Radio.
Christmas is over and the presidential race is about to really begin. As this is recorded, Ted Cruz is building a solid lead in Iowa and the evangelical leaders are endorsing him. We are also told there was a secret meeting where a number of conservative organizations, notably the Family Research Council, decided to back Cruz for President. As Jeb has been all but vanished, Christie and Kaisich are struggling, and Rubio is handicapped by his betrayal on immigration, we may see the establishment conservative movement line up behind Cruz as a kind of last chance to stop Donald Trump.
As for Trump, he still has a commanding lead in New Hampshire. And the Establishment vote is still split between Jeb, Kaisch, Christie and other candidates. Nationally, Trump still has a commanding lead in the polls and is dominating the news cycles. And Trump may even be stronger than he appears, as many of his supporters are people who are getting involved in the political process for the first time. That’s a terrifying thought for the political hacks — the polls may be understating Trump’s support.
Let’s LARP for a second. Obviously, Trump’s support could fall apart, but people have been predicting that for months and he’s only grown stronger. Let’s assume Cruz wins Iowa but Trump takes New Hampshire and maintains a lead nationally going into the Southern primaries. What does the GOP do?
The important thing to remember is that Trump has already won in an important sense. He’s done what no one in the conservative movement has ever been able to do. He has shifted the entire spectrum of political gravity to the right. Cruz has agreed to build Trump’s wall — he’s even said he’d have Trump himself build it. We are discussing a moratorium on Muslim immigration. People are openly talking about the white vote. And he’s attracting people who don’t normally support Republicans.
The bottom line is no Republican candidate can win the general election without at least appeasing Donald Trump’s supporters. All of these consultants and functionaries fantasizing about purging the Trump supporters from the GOP have to deal with that harsh reality.
At the same time, Trump will find it hard to win if he has the conservative movement totally against him. It’s hard enough to oppose the GOP Establishment, many of whom are already discussing backing a third party if Trump gets the nomination. But if the conservatives who are supporting people like Carson and Cruz also won’t support Trump, it’s hard to see how Trump attracts enough Reagan Democrats and first time voters to make up the difference.
What we may see is a Right Wing Unity Ticket of Trump/Cruz. Cruz, after all, is much younger than Trump and has plenty of time to build his own political base. He’d win over the movement conservatives suspicious of Trump. And Trump’s personal appeal would most likely be sufficient to win over the Reagan Democrats, working class voters, and even a good chunk of nonwhite voters. Lately, Cruz has even been talking about immigration’s impact on wages, which is always a good sign. And as of this sign, despite some feints, the de facto Cruz/Trump alliance seems to still be in place.
Of course, this is a ticket practically guaranteed to drive the Left into a frothing frenzy. It’s the Unity Ticket for the Right, but an apocalypse ticket for the political establishment, including many GOP donors. However, it’s important to remember that anyone in the post-Trump era is going to drive the Left nuts. Even if Rubio wins the nomination, he’ll be put under incredible pressure to denounce not just Trump, but Trump’s supporters. And of course, if he does that, he’s going to find it awful hard to get enough voters to overcome the Democrats in November.
What if Cruz comes out ahead? It’s hard to imagine Donald Trump being second fiddle to anyone, even though he’d excel in the traditional Vice Presidential role of attack dog. Still, a candidate Cruz would have to find some kind of a way to ensure Trump’s supporters would turn out for him, besides just appointing Donald Trump Secretary of Wall Construction.
Here at VDARE.com, we’ve often mocked pro-amnesty Beltway Republicans for pretending they can “get past” the immigration issue. You can’t get past it. It will always be there. And now, the same is true of the Middle American Radicals Trump has rallied. They will be key to any hopes of the Republicans building capturing the White House in 2016 and building a viable political movement in the years ahead. Heck, even Bernie Sanders is talking about the need to win over Trump’s votes. They only people who don’t seem to get it are the so-called Smart Set, the GOP consultants who don’t seem very good at politics.
Trump has confounded everyone’s expectations up to this point. And as we’ve argued here before, he has a real shot at winning both the primary and the general election. But no matter what happens, the conservative movement will have to make its peace with him and his supporters or be rendered irrelevant. The beginnings of a real nationalist movement have emerged in American politics. And we say it’s about time.
Talk to you soon.
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