NATIONAL DATA: July Was A Big American Worker Displacement Month, But You Wouldn’t Know It From The Regime Media

By Peter Brimelow

08/18/2022

[Research by Edwin S. Rubenstein]

The central point to grasp from the July jobs data, unreported as far as we can see by anyone except VDARE.com, is that ALL the job growth went to immigrants (legal and illegal, the government — disgracefully — does not distinguish). Also, real aka inflation-adjusted wages fell, and the Biden Rush at the southern border continued at historically high levels. Basically, the trend is awful, for American workers and for America.

According to the widely cited Payroll Survey, U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, an unexpectedly strong gain. This brought total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic shutdowns, and was cited to suggest the U.S. was not, despite two quarters of GDP decline, in a recession.

“At this stage, things are OK,” James Knightley, chief international economist at the ING bank said when the July numbers were released. “Say December, or the early part of next year, that’s when we could see much softer numbers” [With Surge in July, U.S. Recovers the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic, NYT, August 5, 2022].

But Knightley, like most mainstream economists, never ventures beyond the employment data contained in the widely cited Payroll Survey. The “other” employment survey — of households rather than businesses — shows that those “much softer numbers” are already here.

Our analysis of the July HH survey indicates total employment rose by just 179,000, or by less than half the gain reported in the Pay Roll survey.

More important, because unlike the Payroll Survey, it reports national origin, it showed that native-born American workers lost jobs, while immigrants gained them.

In July:

• Immigrants (legal and illegal) gained 325,000 jobs, a 1.15% gain from June.
• Native-born Americans lost 146,000 positions, a 0.11% decline from June.
• Thus VDARE.com’s immigrant employment index, set at 100.0 in January 2009, rose to 131.9 in July from 130.4 in June, a 1.15% increase.
• VDARE’s Native-Born Employment Index fell to 107.6 from 107.7 in June, a 0.11% decline.

The New VDARE American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI), our name for the ratio of the immigrant to native-born employment growth indexes since January 2009, rose to 122.5 in July from 121.1 in June, a 1.19% increase.

The record NVDAWDI — 123.0 — was set as recently as May 2022.

Of course, displacement fluctuates month-to-month. But the long-run trend is all too clear.

Despite 961,000 immigrants reported as unemployed in July, the foreign-born working-age population continued to expand, by more than 2 million year-over-year [Y-O-Y], for the third consecutive month. Never over the past 15 years have three consecutive months seen 2+million increases in the working-age immigrant population

Note carefully what this chart shows. Unlike our other charts, which show absolute values, this one compares each month to the same month of the prior year. So the immigrant workforce population grew by 2.038 million in July compared to July 2021. The corresponding increases for May and June were 2.361 million, and 2.058 million, respectively.

In contrast, for most of 2020, the population of working-age immigrants declined Y-O-Y. This far exceeded the net exodus during the 2008 Great Recession, and the brief net exodus during Trump’s first year, when his mere presence seemed to have jawboned illegals into fleeing.

The immigrant population of working age started growing again only in December 2020 — when the election results spurred a renewed invasion.

While the headline-grabbing payroll job figure may have lulled worries of an impending recession, the overall report is consistent with 1970s-style stagflation. Average hourly earnings increased 0.5% for the month, or 5.2%, year-over-year. However, the latest inflation figures, although flat in July, were up a shocking 8.5% year-over-year [US inflation cooled to 8.5% in July, AP, August 11, 2022].

At these wage and inflation rates, the standard of living of the average U.S. worker is on a downward trajectory.

Another displacement metric — the immigrant share of total employment — rose significantly in July. Our analysis indicates that 18.032% of jobs were held by immigrants in July, up from June’s 17.847%. The May figure of 18.089% was the highest since we started tracking employment by nativity in January 2009

The July Household Survey reported 158.3 million people held jobs in the U.S. Each 1% rise in immigrant employment share represents a transfer of about 1.58 million jobs from native-born Americans to immigrants.

As far as total employment is concerned, Household Survey figures are invariably above Payroll Survey figures. One likely explanation: U.S. businesses are reluctant to acknowledge illegals working “off the books.” In July, the employment “gap” between the surveys shrank to 5.75 million from June’s 6.13 million, a 6.2% reduction.

A more detailed picture of how native-born American workers fared over the past year vis-à-vis immigrants is published in Table A-7 of the monthly BLS Report:

From July 2021 to July 2022:

• Immigrant employment rose by 2.467 million, an eye-popping 9.41%, while native-born employment rose 3.004 million, a 2.36% gain. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
• The immigrant population of working-age rose by 2.038 million, a gain of 4.76%, Y-O-Y, while the corresponding native-born population increased by only 504,000 — a 0.23% rise. THE IMMIGRANT ADULT POPULATION GREW 21 TIMES FASTER THAN THE NATIVE-BORN ADULT POPULATION. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
• The immigrant labor force (people working or looking for work) grew by 6.97%, more than 16 times the 0.42% gain in the native-born labor force. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS The data in the table are from a survey of households which includes self-employed workers, agricultural workers, and private family workers, who are excluded from the more widely cited Payroll Survey. Also overlooked, we contend, are illegal immigrants working “off the books” in large corporations.
• Labor Force Participation Rates rose for both native-born Americans and immigrants, but the 1.4% point (2.16%) gain for immigrants was 14 times larger than the corresponding percentage gain for native-born workers. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
• Unemployment rates for native-born American workers fell by 1.8 percentage points, or 31.6%, while the immigrant unemployment rate fell by 2.2% points, or 40.7%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
• 5.293 million native-born Americans, and 961,000 immigrants, were unemployed in July; over the prior 12 months the number of unemployed immigrants fell by 35.8%, while native-born American jobless declined by 31.5%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS

Looming behind all this, the Biden Rush at the southern border continues unabated. Almost 200,000 were apprehended in July, a proxy for the unprecedented overall flow.

Of course, many of these are welfare-dependent women and children. But the labor market impact on native-born Americans is simply a matter of time.

Peter Brimelow is the editor of VDARE.com. His best-selling book, Alien Nation: Common Sense About America’s Immigration Disaster, is now available in Kindle format.

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