04/04/2010
Boosted by the hiring of Census takers and a rebound from February’s snows, the economy created 162,000 jobs in March — the largest monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls in three years. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% with the labor force rising by 398,000.
The "other" employment survey — of households rather than businesses — revealed a March job gain of 264,000 — the third consecutive month of robust employment growth. The Household Survey is regarded as a leading indicator of future employment trends because it captures small business hiring, home based entrepreneurs, and — more importantly, from our perspective — illegal aliens.
March 2010 was one of those rare periods in which all new jobs apparently went to natives. Here are the month’s employment changes:
Total employment: +264,000 (+0.19 percent)
Hispanic employment: no change (+0.00 percent)
Non-Hispanic employment: +264,000 (+0.22 percent)
Accordingly, the VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) fell by 0.3 percent March to 125.6:
The black line tracks Hispanic job growth; the pink non-Hispanic job creation, and the yellow line VDAWDI — the ratio of Hispanic to non-Hispanic job growth. All lines start at 100.0 in January 2001.
As is painfully evident in the graphic, national employment trends since 2001 have overwhelmingly favored Hispanics at the expense of non-Hispanics. From January 2001 through March 2010:
Hispanic employment increased by 3,730,000 positions (+ 23.1 percent)
Non-Hispanic employment fell by 2,601,000 positions (-2.1 percent)
And while both groups have lost ground since the onset of Great Recession in December 2007, non-Hispanics have taken the larger hit:
Hispanic employment fell by 656,000 -3.2 percent)
Non-Hispanic employment fell by 6,733,000 positions (-5.4 percent)
The BLS now devotes a table of its monthly employment report to immigrant and native born employment. Because the data are not seasonally adjusted month to month comparisons are not possible. We can, however, compare March 2010 with March 2009.
|
Employment Status by Nativity, March 2009-March 2010 |
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|
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) |
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|
|
Mar-09 |
Mar-10 |
Change |
% Change |
|
|
Foreign born, 16 years and older |
|||
|
Civilian population |
34,675 |
34,991 |
316 |
0.9% |
|
Civilian labor force. |
23,529 |
23,855 |
326 |
1.4% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
67.9 |
68.2 |
0.3 |
0.4% |
|
Employed |
21,274 |
21,239 |
-35 |
-0.2% |
|
Unemployed (%) |
2,256 |
2,616 |
360 |
16.0% |
|
Unemployment rate |
9.6 |
11.0 |
1.4 |
14.6% |
|
Not in labor force |
11,146 |
11,136 |
-10 |
-0.1% |
|
|
Native born, 16 years and older |
|||
|
Civilian population |
200,411 |
202,168 |
1,757 |
0.9% |
|
Civilian labor force. |
130,198 |
129,605 |
-593 |
-0.5% |
|
Participation rate (%) |
65.0 |
64.2 |
-0.8 |
-1.2% |
|
Employed |
118,559 |
116,743 |
-1,816 |
-1.5% |
|
Unemployed (%) |
11,639 |
13,062 |
1,423 |
12.2% |
|
Unemployment rate |
8.9 |
10.1 |
1.2 |
13.5% |
|
Not in labor force |
70,212 |
72,363 |
2,151 |
3.1% |
|
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation — March 2010," April 2, 2010. Table A-7. |
Summary: over the past 12 months, the number of employed native-born workers has shrunk by 1.816 million, or 1.5 percent. Immigrant employment has declined by only 35,000 — or by 0.2 percent — over the same period.
Immigrant unemployment rates are higher and have increased more rapidly than native unemployment rates over the past year. Most of this is attributable to divergent trends in labor force participation: rising for the foreign-born, falling for natives.
The recession, coupled with increased competition from low wage immigrants, has sent many native workers to the sidelines.
Edwin S. Rubenstein is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
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