Sailer: The Worst And Best Counties For Black Homicides

By Steve Sailer

11/04/2022

Earlier: Top 100 Counties By Homicide Rate Vs. Black Share Of The Population

Below are the 100 counties with the most black residents ranked in descending order of annual homicide victimization rate among blacks (years 2018-21).

Two of the top three are rare “independent cities:” both St. Louis City and Baltimore City split apart in the 19th century from St. Louis County and Baltimore County, respectively. They are deemed “county equivalents” and are included in federal databases of counties.

But it’s confusing because both #1 urban St. Louis City (99 homicides per 100,000) and #5 suburban St. Louis County (e.g., Ferguson, 61) have the same name. Suburban Baltimore County is #44 at 28.

Jackson County, Missouri (Kansas City) is #2 at 78. Missouri blacks weren’t always this bad. Here’s the CDC graph of homicide deaths 1999-2020 for black Missouri residents:

That sure looks like the Ferguson Effect. (Michael Brown died on August 7, 2014, beginning the first BLM Era).

It looks like the top 10 worst counties for blacks dying by homicide (overwhelmingly at the hands of other blacks) include seven in red states and three in blue states (Baltimore City, Cook County, Philadelphia County), although Missouri was often considered a purple state until it got very red during the Ferguson Effect.

In general, the worst black homicide rates tend to be in the middle of the country, the vast Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds. In general, it looks like the worst locales feature a lot of left-behinds of the Rust Belt.

Eastern seaboard counties like Baltimore City, Philadelphia County, and the District of Columbia perhaps reflect poor local governance. The blacks of the New York and Boston areas are doing better, as are places that blacks move to for jobs and pensioned retirements, such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

The lowest black homicide rate is Fairfax County in the Virginia suburbs of DC. I’m under the impression a lot of blacks there are immigrants? #99 Nassau NY is Long Island, where lots of NYPD live. #98 Collin TX is northern Dallas suburbs (such as Plano and Frisco) famed for high school test scores for blacks and Hispanics.

I’m wondering whether the main effect we are seeing in this ranking isn’t much of a red vs. blue divide that people like to argue about, or even Ferguson or Floyd Effects, it’s that the better sort of blacks are abandoning old industrial heartland cities for suburbs or more modern economies in places like Georgia, Texas, and Florida, leaving behind the worst sort of blacks. This raises the depressing question of how much can be done about keeping St. Louis from turning into East St. Louis and, eventually, Chicago from turning into Gary.

Obviously, though, the Cultural Revolution of May 25, 2020 has hastened that dire day.

Those responsible should be punished.

[Comment at Unz.com]

< Previous

Next >

This is a content archive of VDARE.com, which Letitia James forced off of the Internet using lawfare.